A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
