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Mounting worries exist over the potential of warfare among East African countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his country's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a military clash started in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader the army commander have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "rectified tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

Amid persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on X from Information Minister the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a policy of retaking previous domains.

The information ministry warned on mid-September that attempts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Border

So far, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, government media has displayed training completions of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of personnel division of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Dispute

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, finishing with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was finished – a move that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

However ties have since broken down again.