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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still